Khodorkovsky writes for the 100th edition of Forbes Magazine in Russia. 

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Forbes, 25.06.2012 (original in Russian)

The modern-day knowledge economy is being created by a creative minority, and a modern-day democracy — is the way to protect its interests.  But for Putin, recognition of this is unacceptable — he is putting his stakes on the majority.  The radicalisation of protest is inevitable.

There is only one question, albeit a key one, in which the policy agenda for the next 6 years formed in Vladimir Putin’s eclectic pre-election articles does not raise objections from the opposition:  the country is in acute need of modernisation.

The possibility of continuing to develop on account of raw-materials incomes is practically exhausted, inasmuch as the volumes of production of the principal kinds of raw material, and the cost of their production, and the price parameters of the world market are hardly likely to improve noticeably.  On the other hand, stabilisation or even a decline are very likely indeed.  Given that the quality of life of Russians lags noticeably behind the European level, given that demographic problems, and the pension problems associated with them, are clearly only going to increase in the period in question, given that the state of the country’s infrastructure (utilities, transportation, social of services) is deteriorating relative to neighbours (or even in absolute indicators), it is obvious:  there is not much time before crisis phenomena in various spheres begin to manifest themselves.

Further, beyond the confines of the agreement on the key question, there exists a key divergence, which Putin more or less skilfully avoided in the course of the entire pre-election period.

This is the question of the methods of modernisation, and this means of its direction as well.

If we take a step back from the smokescreen of the simulacra of state and civic institutions being created by the regime, it is easy to see three principles that Putin regards as being axiomatic.

— Democracy is the power of the majority.  The minority must accept this power and submit to it.

— The power of the majority signifies the right to adopt measures of coercion, including physical force and repressions, towards the minority in the name of the majority in all situations when the minority protests or even simply objects actively, and consequently a need to negotiate with the minority is absent.

— The right to speak out in the name of the majority for the next 6 years monopolistically belongs personally to Putin as the result of dishonest elections.

All the rest is a consequence of these principles, with which the opposition, or at any rate the liberal opposition, can not agree.

A modern-day knowledge economy, where a large part of the added value is created by the creative minority (not to be confused with a post-industrial economy), is simply impossible in conditions of such diktat.

The factual liquidation of federalism, local self-administration, separation of powers (including an independent judiciary), real political competition, the absolute rule of a corrupt bureaucracy and the siloviki structures are returning the country to the raw-material-industrial era of the thirties-sixties of the previous century.

Mass production of technically relatively non-complex or antiquated output, as well as of raw materials through the efforts of large state or proximate-to-the-state enterprises — here are Russia’s prospects for the next few years in the sphere of “business”.

International competition primarily on the part of the developing Asian economies will not allow us to attain a good result on this path.  The rates of growth will be below the 4–5% that are critical for the country.

With such rates of growth, relatively low for a developing economy, the quality of state administration is not going to allow for a sufficient rate of social well-being to be provided for in many regions.  The quantity of local stress points is going to increase.

A recognition that a modern-day economy and a modern-day society are an aggregate of minorities — while a modern-day democracy is the way to protect their interests — is too revolutionary and mentally unacceptable a change of paradigm for the politicians who comprise the putinite entourage.  And, indeed, for Putin himself as well.

In such a situation, attempts to apply force on the part of the power are a more likely scenario than is a sincere intention to negotiate, to find a compromise.

The understanding that minorities are capable of causing harm at an unacceptable scale by deed, and word, and even inaction, will come to the power too late, when the protest will have radicalised and it will have become practically unrealistic to return it to the negotiation track.

Properly speaking, we are observing the development of just such a scenario in Moscow right now.  The change in moods from December to May is impressive indeed.  And although the power reassures itself that “Moscow is not Russia”, all of our experience shows it is that same Russia, only just a little bit ahead of the curve.  By the way, the 15-20-million Moscow, 8-10-million Petersburg and rapidly awakening Urals, Siberia, Volga regions — this is quite sufficient for the OMON to cease to be a serious argument, having been transformed into a “red rag”.  The protest of the creative minority, having united with the social protest of that part of society for which the power is not going to ensure the anticipated rates of growth in prosperity (including due to the braking of social lifts), can not be stopped with suggestions to “take it to court” or administrative arrests.

The thought that “we will negotiate when you show strength” is extremely dangerous.

The citizens who came out for a peaceful demonstration by the hundreds of thousands were trying to negotiate.  When they are denied negotiations, they abandon the street to the radicals.  Only radicals are not extraterrestrials, but our neighbours, people close to us, these are our children.

Modern-day social processes are developing rapidly, the bureaucracy is not up to the task.  The barrier beyond which it will become impossible to reach an understanding is easy to cross, what was once an opponent now becomes an enemy, yesterday’s peaceful demonstrator whose child has died is hardly likely to be inclined to negotiate about anything.

The engineers managing Moscow’s water and sewage system, nuclear reactors, including around and within Moscow, gigantic oil refining, chemical and biological production facilities, air traffic controllers, the drivers of petrol tanker lorries, ordinary employees of ordinary Moscow scientific-and-production amalgamations and scientific-research institutes — these too are minorities, but is it going to be any easier for anybody if such minorities, or even minorities within these minorities, decide to show strength?  Their real strength…

The world is too fragile today for it to be worth it for the power to try the patience of society, its individual parts in direct confrontation.

An acceptable alternative to a broad consensus simply does not exist.