GLOBSEC Forum 2024

September 3, 2024

I spoke at GLOBSEC’s ‘Russia Beyond Putin’ session with Free Russia Foundation’s Roland Freudenstein, journalist Mikhail Zygar, moderated by The New York Times’ Valerie Hopkins.

We stated that to counter Putin, we must make the vision of a democratic future as clear and appealing as the dream of Western-style living in the late 1980s.It’s the only way to decisively defeat a dictatorship that terrorizes its neighbors and controls its own people with force.

Russia won’t disappear, no matter the outcome of the current conflict. The West must learn to coexist with its 120-140 million people. But how? The answer lies in a nuanced approach that separates the population from those in power.

Many people believe it would be best if Russia simply didn’t exist. But that won’t happen. Regardless of the future setup, in the coming decades, the West will need to coexist with Russia and its population of 120-140 million people. It’s a substantial population that cannot be ignored. Opposing the entire nation, even if it’s acting against the West, is wrong. Some people question how one can believe the war is solely driven by Putin and that Russians have no part in it. While I’m aware of the polls and how many Russians support the war for various reasons, from a pragmatic standpoint, the West should not declare war on the Russian people as a whole. That would be a mistake.

If the rhetoric remains “We are against Russians,” the Russian people may become indifferent. It’s crucial to clearly distinguish between the Russian people and the Russian decision-makers. We need to specify that we are at war with the decision-makers, not the entire population. When the situation changes—and it will—you’ll then have the chance to prevent future war or the continuation of this one. By separating the people from the decision-makers, you leave room for diplomacy and understanding when the time comes. Military commanders learn not to yell at the entire corps or at soldiers when they are all lined up. If you want to influence one soldier, you make him step forward and address him directly. When soldiers are lined up, they feel a sense of protection. The West should apply the same principle when dealing with Russia.