Mikhail Khodorkovsky told La Stampa that he does not share the optimism of those who see an imminent end to hostilities. The Russian president is like “a gambler, always hoping the next card will be the winning one.” And he warned Europeans: “After Ukraine, he will attack you.”

In an interview with La Stampa , dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky, speaking from his London office, analyses the geopolitical scenario and the prospects for peace in Ukraine, arguing that for the Kremlin leader the conflict has become an essential political necessity since “Vladimir Putin has long since abandoned the pragmatism of his early days in power” and now “for him the Donbas is a question of ideology, of principle and also of survival in power”.

Khodorkovsky dampens the optimism of those who see an imminent end to hostilities by explaining that Putin will drag his feet, attempting to break through militarily as he has failed to do in these four years of attacks. He argues that “his propaganda has gone too far to make concessions” and that, despite economic interests, “the conflict is now being played out on a different level. Even Zelenskyy cannot cede territory without causing a dramatic crisis in Ukraine, both in terms of institutional and social cohesion.”

Khodorkovsky likens the Russian president to “a gambler” who “always hopes that the next card will be the winning one” and who “is doing so even now with Trump,” while emphasising that Russia will sooner or later have to deal with an economy on the brink of recession and a shortage of soldiers and civilian labor.

Regarding possible solutions for a truce, the dissident suggests that the only realistic way out is to transform the disputed areas into demilitarised zones because “otherwise there’s no way out,” suggesting that “a no-fly zone over demilitarised territories would be a credible deterrent even for Moscow.”

The former Yukos chief’s most stern warning, however, is aimed directly at Western democracies, warning that “Putin will be tempted once again to cry out about the emergency of an enemy at the gates. And on Russia’s borders, there are you Europeans,” while criticising the continent’s lack of willingness to defend itself. According to Khodorkovsky, “you Europeans no longer have the mentality of those who are ready to defend their own nation,” and this attitude is interpreted by the Kremlin “only as weakness.” He therefore appeals for them to understand that “you must teach young people that their country must be defended, even with weapons if necessary. This is not nationalism, which has in fact caused many conflicts throughout history, but self-defense.” In closing, commenting on the rise of pro-Putin movements in Europe, Khodorkovsky sarcastically observes that “it’s clear that after Mussolini, Hitler, or Francisco Franco, many of you still long for the strongman.” 

The interview was conducted by Marco Varvello and was originally published in La Stampa and the HuffPost