The Russian war in Ukraine will last a year, no longer. But in three years at the latest, Russian leader Vladimir Putin will unleash another conflict. This was stated by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly Russia’s richest man and a political prisoner, in an exclusive interview with CNN Prima NEWS. The former businessman described why, in his opinion, there are no longer any oligarchs in Russia and who Putin fears among the opposition. At the same time, however, he also criticised European sanctions against Moscow, the imposition of which is leading to Russian dependence on China.

Do you think it is possible to achieve peace in Ukraine if Putin remains Russian president?

Peace, of course not. First the shooting must stop and I think that is possible to achieve. I don’t know how he sees it, but his entourage already understands, after Ukraine’s capture of part of the Kursk region, how much money will be needed to rebuild the country after the war. Kursk alone will need about $10 billion (the Russian TASS agency is talking about $7 billion, or about 150 billion Czech crowns, editor’s note). And it’s only a small piece of territory, with 200,000 people living there, and the Ukrainians held it for eight months. If we talk about the ocuppied Ukrainian territories that will require renovation, including large megaprojects, we are talking about huge sums of money. Putin is now dealing with two situations. First, he pragmatically needs suitable geographical borders to protect the occupied territory. Rivers are ideal for this. Second, he wants a Ukrainian government that is dependent on Russia. For him, this is the best option. Of course, the Ukrainians disagree with this. That is why Putin has decided to continue with a military solution to the conflict. In my opinion, however, the war will last about a year, no more.

What makes you think so?

Because the Russian economy is in a disastrous state. It cannot sustain itself at this pace for much longer. In addition, Europe is increasing its arms production and is starting to take its defence more seriously. The question is whether the Ukrainians can fight for another year. I don’t know, but they are also struggling with problems, especially a shortage of soldiers.

There have been reports of the dire state of the Russian economy for a long time. Do you think it is possible that the oligarchs, secret service chiefs or other influential Russians will lose patience with Putin and initiate a coup?

If that were to happen, it would be in 2022. At that time, it looked like he had lost. But today he is winning. And history knows of no example of a president being overthrown while winning a war. I don’t think that will happen now.

What is the atmosphere among the Russian oligarchs? You mentioned Russia’s economic problems. Aren’t they angry?

There are no oligarchs in Russia anymore. You cannot find oligarchs in a dictatorship. You can see them in democratic countries and in states with soft autocracies, but not in a dictatorship. If you are a dictator, everyone else is either in your service or has nothing.

So, in your opinion, the Russian rich are completely powerless?

Of course. If they have power, it’s not a dictatorship. Take the case of Ukraine before the war. There were several groups there that were influential and economically and politically powerful. They were oligarchs, but there are no longer any such people in Russia. There are rich people with some influence whom Putin listens to because he wants to know what industry thinks, but they have no power. There are secret services and Putin’s administration, which is enough to oppress the rich.

Do you see anyone in Russia who could replace Alexei Navalny and become the leader of the domestic opposition?

It’s funny because the Western view of the Russian political situation is completely different from reality. The Western soul only knows democratic opposition. And in good times, it had the support of 30 per cent of the Russian population. Now, after more than three years of war, it probably makes up nine per cent of the Russian population. And even if someone took the place of leader of nine per cent of the population, they would not have much influence in Russia. Putin is now afraid of the patriotic opposition. It is not large, comprising 15 to 20 per cent of the population, but it is very influential. It consists of people who are now on the front line with weapons. Moreover, these people make up his electoral base. Putin is therefore thinking about this and considering how to eliminate this problem. After 2014, he decided to crack down on the patriotic opposition and had several of its leaders killed. Another such leader, Igor Girkin (former representative of the Donetsk People’s Republic responsible for the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine, ed.), is in prison.

Couldn’t the opposition gain more supporters under a strong leader? Yulia Navalnaya comes to mind, for example…

It’s hard to say. I don’t really believe she would be able to mobilise Russian democratic society. I don’t think that’s her inner goal. I don’t know her personally very well, but people close to her say that becoming Russian president is not her goal. She did say out loud, ‘Yes, I want to be president of Russia.’ But no one believes her. Others feel the same way. I talked about this with Vladimir Kara-Murza. He is a good man, well known in the West, but to Russians he is just a dissident. He is involved in human rights, but they do not see him as a political leader. I am also well known in Russia, but mostly as a political prisoner and industrialist. Not as a political leader. In a different, normal situation, I could perhaps be prime minister or someone responsible for Russia’s economy, but not for the whole country.

And I am afraid of the Western idea of a “good Russian tsar”. That’s a bad idea – both for Russia and for the West. Even Boris Yeltsin, whom I knew really well, was a tsar, but a democratic one at first. He was all for an independent press and so on. But even he clashed with the West after a few years (referring to the Pristina incident, ed.). Why? Because when you are president or tsar and a conflict arises, there is only one thing you can say to the Russian people to get them to stand behind you: “The enemy is against us”.

Do you think this mentality, that Russia always needs an enemy, will change?

Centralised Russia needs an enemy. If there is real federalisation in Russia, then it could change? You know, it’s actually about money. The Kremlin doesn’t need to collect 60 per cent of taxes from the regions, less than 50 per cent is enough. If it collects 40 per cent, there will be no need for an external enemy. The regions will retain 60 per cent of taxes, which will be enough for most of them to support their local economies.

What stance should Europe take towards Russia after the war? Should Russia integrate more, or should it isolate itself more and not interfere in internal developments?

That’s a good question. And it’s also one of the problems with the European sanctions’ regime. Because what happened after the sanctions were imposed? Europe was very important to Russia commercially, and now that the West has decided to cut off economic ties, China has filled the vacuum. It started with the import and export of goods, materials and so on. But now, after several years, it has matured into cultural exchange and ties in the service sector. If the sanctions remain the same, after a few years the result will be Russian dependence on China. The Russians don’t want that, Putin doesn’t want that, but that’s where it’s heading. And that’s dangerous. The Americans understand this, which is why they are asking Europe for some changes. Although I am an opponent of Putin’s regime, I agree with this. In my opinion, it is foolish to impose sanctions when China will fill the void left by Europe.

Sanctions should be imposed on military equipment that would otherwise help Putin’s war machine. If Europe can do this politically, it must repeat the reintroduction of sanctions that worked against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Under the CoCom (Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls, ed.), exports of military equipment to the Eastern Bloc were restricted. These were very clever and precise sanctions.

So what should Europe do now?

The main question is whether Europe can defend itself against a potential threat. Its inadequate defence capabilities are a major problem. Putin knows this and is putting pressure on Europe. Look at the political situation in various European countries. Not everything is the result of Putin’s efforts, but some of it is the result of his provocations, propaganda and so on. If he succeeds in dividing the Western allies, he could attempt to destroy NATO militarily. It is important to understand that he does not want to deal with a common European organisation. Negotiating with the European Union or NATO is inconvenient for him. He wants to talk to states individually and thereby strengthen mutual relations. In the event of a conflict, NATO members sympathetic to him could refuse to participate in the war, which would lead to the demise of the NATO.

Would Putin be capable of using nuclear weapons? Moscow has repeatedly threatened to do so in the past.

For him, it is a defensive weapon. We were closer to this in the past, when it seemed that he could lose power. But now he has no reason to do so. He is now the winner in Russia.

Do you have a message for Ukrainians fighting against Russia?

Only weapons can decide when and where Putin will stop. Only weapons can do that, not sanctions or anything else. But after the war ends, I fear that a new war could break out in two to three years. Russia will face major economic problems, and discontent among the people could grow because the population’s wealth is at the same level as it was 10 years ago. There are several ways to solve this problem. But we know from the past that Putin has faced similar problems four times – and four times he started a war. However, conflict could be avoided if Europe quickly increases its defence capabilities and if Ukrainians are united.

Do you think Russia would wage this new war against Ukraine again?

Ukraine is a very attractive target for Putin. If Ukraine does not increase its arms production after the war, does not attract enough investment for reconstruction, and if there are those who seek to destroy Ukrainian society from within, it will become the first target. But Europe is not safe either. It may not have to fear occupation, but it will be the target of provocations aimed at destroying NATO and European institutions.

The interview was conducted by Lukáš Cigánek, and it was originally published in CNN Prima NEWS