Off-Piste

You know what’s most interesting about the Russians at Davos this year? And no, it’s not Oleg Deripaska’s party … it’s the low level of the delegation – deputies of deputies. The highest-level Russian speaker is Alexei Kudrin, but he’s not (not yet again, that is) a member of the government. And there’s a reason for this unheard of modesty.

For those of you who might feel the desire and inclination to be taken in by the slick presentations that our countrymen will be making, you only have to remember, caviar canapé in one hand, and vodka shot in the other, what went on last week at that other forum, a world away, in Moscow – the Gaidar Forum.

It was clear to us there that the elites are alarmed by the economic situation in Russia, but this did not openly manifest itself at either the official or semi-official events. German Gref, head of Sberbank, sounded a note of dissonance in his speech, which was brave of him, but not one of the high-ranking representatives of Putin’s elite gave evidence of any coherent strategic concept for a new economic policy. There were some scrappy ideas, which their respective advocates have been advancing, in one way or another, throughout their conscious political-administrative-economic life. But it was all a bit, well, stage managed.

Each important member of the Russian elite at the Forum stuck fairly closely to the role allotted to him (by the leadership, public opinion, or independently).

Prime Minister Medvedev, First Deputy Prime Minister Shuvalov, and Economic Development Minister Ulyukayev, continued with their niche position of “moderate optimism with an anxious face.” Things are not brilliant, but they will get better. We’ll put our backs in to this situation, stand firm and win through. These are the “loyal followers” of the Putin executive.

Finance Minister Siluanov, on the other hand, is the legitimate “bad follower.” The 2016 federal budget must be cut by at least 10% or we shall end up with a 1998-style crisis, was his cheery message.

Mr Chubais – I’m an old (holy) fool, just leave me my ‘Rosnano‘ with the requisite financing and you can ignore me.

Mr Kudrin and Mr Gref – everything is either bad or very bad, but fear not, we know how to deal with the situation; we just have to be given enough power to manage the economy and (oh horrors!) introduce economic reforms.

Mr Kudrin’s position is an interesting one, as you will understand when you hear him speak at Davos. He wants a triumphal return to power under the banner of his traditional ideas: strictly regulated budget expenditure and maximum control of state and quasi-state financial streams. For us, camped outside the wall, hearing him emphasise his loyalty to the geopolitical experiments and innovations of the Boss, it’s clear that he’s distancing himself from some of the excessively radical statements made by members of his own Committee of Civil Initiatives.

Mr Gref wants the same as Mr Kudrin – power. But he has a slightly different “bee in his bonnet:” he wants a technological revolution in general and in the IT sphere in particular, rather than financial order, like Kudrin. For this reason, his rhetoric comes over as much tougher, though a closer examination reveals that it is actually not. Gref quotes Sberbank as the example of a successful reform model, which could be rolled out over the whole of Russia. The bank, he says, had fallen way behind modern practices, but has now recognised this, and the future looks bright. Like Kudrin, he too does not criticise Mr Putin’s foreign or domestic policy.

Not one of the high-profile Russian speakers at the Gaidar Forum listed the Kremlin’s 2014-15 international military ventures as a significant factor in Russia’s deteriorating financial and economic situation. This would have been to overstep the barrier of loyalty to President Putin, and none of these people can do that, however radical any of their statements might sound.

Arriving in Davos from Moscow, the Russian delegation has been busy preparing for this week’s show: Cristal champagne, check; Cossacks, check; everybody on message, check. Except that the Boss himself couldn’t give a damn about all that. He’s off doing what he’s always done – skiing off-piste.