Once again, Pavel Khodorkovsky, Mikhail’s son comments on the recurring theme of his father’s hypothetical pardon. Pavel has begun a series of public talks in American universities.

The Voice of America, by Mikhail Gutkin, 16.10.2012 (the original article)

New York – Mikhail Khodorkovsky does not intend to turn to Vladimir Putin with a request for a pardon. The fallen oligarch’s son Pavel Khodorkovsky spoke about this in an interview with the Voice of America’s Russian service, commenting on the recent declaration by the president of Russia about his readiness to examine such a request, if it is received, “benevolently, without bloodthirsty attitudes”.

“I think that even if my father does ask for a pardon – and he has been considering this for a long time already – this request is not going to be granted,” added Pavel Khodorkovsky. “I think that this is merely an attempt to knock a fallen opponent down completely, and I am convinced that it will not be successful”.

Pavel Khodorkovsky, who has founded the Institute of Modern Russia in New York, gave an interview to Voice of America after his appearance at New York University. This appearance was the start of a planned series of public discussions at American colleges, including Michigan University, George Washington University in D.C., John Hopkins University, Princeton, Stanford and other universities.

“Nearly two years have already passed from the issue of the sentence (second – M. G.) for my father,” explained Pavel Khodorkovsky. “There is nothing to generate news in connection with this case today. I am very much afraid that people will forget about my father. My task is to make sure they don’t forget about my father. Thanks to the fact that I live in the USA, I have access to colleges, universities and other organizations that are interested in Russia and the international policy of the USA”.

In the thick of the pre-election campaign in the USA, Pavel Khodorkovsky does not conceal that in the context of American-Russian relations, he supports the approach of the candidate from the Republican party, Mitt Romney. “I consider that the so-called ‘dual track policy’ being conducted by today’s administration in relation to Russia is not working,” he clarified. “This is a good principle, on which one can base relations with some non-democratic regimes, but in the case with Russia this does not work. This policy is perceived by the Russian government as weakness”.

“For now I can’t see that this policy has had any positive impact whatsoever on the human rights situation in Russia,” added Pavel Khodorkovsky. “There is some positive influence on the diplomatic relations between the two countries, but influence on the social sphere in Russia – none”.

Voice of America’s reporter particularly singled out the role of Senator John McCain, who supports the “Magnitsky bill” and at the same time “understands that Russia is imperative to the West, as a partner of equal value”. “As you know, the ‘Magnitsky bill’ is supported by very many representatives of the Democratic party of the USA as well, but, unfortunately, the people who are now sitting in the administration of the president of the USA hold a completely different position. They’re totally focused on the ‘reset’ policy and on getting the maximum result with respect to concrete diplomatic problems that are being faced by the USA, and not on anything else”.

A personal conflict of state significance

In his appearance at New York University law school, Pavel Khodorkovsky declared that his father has had to pay for rejecting the “social contract” offered by Vladimir Putin – “stability in exchange for the erosion of human rights”. In particular, Mikhail Khodorkovsky refused to carry out Putin’s demand to stop funding the opposition, including the Communist party.

In Pavel Khodorkovsky’s opinion, his father’s “show trial” has created important legal precedents in Russia, allowing bureaucrats and state officials to carry out “raider attacks” of private companies henceforth. The “Khodorkovsky case,” said the son of Russia’s most famous prisoner considers it also laid the foundation for the phasing out of civil rights and liberties and has led to such events as the death of Hermitage Fund lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.

Having noted the far-reaching consequences of his father’s case, Pavel Khodorkovsky also paused to dwell on the personal aspect of the conflict between him and Putin. He called the declaration by the Russian president of his readiness to examine a request for pardon “Putin’s latest attempt at victory in his continuing personal conflict with my father by having driven his opponent to show some visible weakness”.

 “Putin’s latest declaration about a request for pardon in my father’s case – this is just another attempt to divest himself of responsibility in the face of the call for changes that has already been formed by society,” declared Pavel Khodorkovsky. “You don’t need a request for pardon to set my father free and partially fulfill the protesters’ demand for the release of political prisoners”.

Responding to a question from Voice of America about the conflict between two strong-willed people, neither of whom wants to “lose face” in the context of state policy, Pavel Khodorkovsky noted that “a state official cannot lose face if he is acting in accordance with the law”. “My father might be afraid of losing face if he considers the request for a pardon – although I am convinced that this is already a closed chapter and that it is not going to happen – because he is a private person,” said the son of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. “For a top official, a representative of the state, fear of losing face can not be one of the factors for the adoption of a rational decision”.

In the opinion of Pavel Khodorkovsky, a “triviall” connection exists between “the conflict of two men” and the conflict between the state and society. “In my father’s case, the personal conflict consists of the awareness that his release may lead to Putin’s political downfall,” he declared. “In other words, this could become an impetus for the opposition movement and spill over into some kind of uncontrollable protest. As of today, the government is attempting to control the protest, and I would say that in a certain sense they are achieving success. The fact that a stronger reaction from society did not follow after the adoption of a series of screw-tightening laws attests to the fact that the system still has a certain reserve of durability left”.

“The conflict between society and the state consists of the fact that society understands that the state is standing in the way of the country’s development, while the state understands that there are factually no ways to get out of this situation while ‘saving face’, as you say,” declared Pavel Khodorkovsky to the Voice of America correspondent, having clarified that at the foundation of this conflict lies corruption, the level of which in the Russian economy reaches 80 percent. “Officials representing the state cannot accept  any pact or agree to a transition period, because all of their personal interests are tied up specifically with retaining power. Putin thinks that the release of one person signifies the fall from Olympus of another, and therefore concessions to society and the implementation of those reforms for which society’s call is already formed signify the downfall of this state”.

The “prisoner of the Kremlin”

In his appearance, Pavel Khodorkovsky even declared that Putin cannot go because “he is a prisoner of the Kremlin, the same was as my father is an inmate of the Segezha colony”. In his words, Putin’s entourage fears that being at liberty, Mikhail Khodorkovsky “will attempt again to win back the cases opened in the commercial courts of the attack on YUKOS, and will attempt to return the company”. “However, as of today this is practically impossible,” continued the fallen oligarch’s son. “And secondly, my father has already long ago transferred the shares in the YUKOS company that belonged to him to other partners, and they are now engaged in getting compensation from the Russian government in completely different courts, beyond the bounds of Russia. Therefore this fear is not substantiated”.

Pavel is convinced that another reason why Putin continues to be afraid of his father, whom he did not manage to break with a long jail term, is because being at liberty, Mikhail Khodorkovsky could unite and head the disjointed Russian opposition. In the words of Pavel Khodorkovsky, his father has no such plans as of today, however “certain actions by the moral leaders of society” often lead to “consequences that are unforeseeable even by them”. “Vaclav Havel did not believe that he would become president (of the Czech Republic – M. G.), and he did not have such plans,” reminded Pavel Khodorkovsky. “But history took a different turn. In the same way, now my father does not believe that he could become a political leader. From these considerations, he sees his effectiveness and ability to positively impact the development of his country through the same kind of activity that “Open Russia,” the foundation founded by him, had engaged in. But, once again, history can take a completely different turn, and knowledge of this history is feeding Putin’s fear”.

At the same time, in Pavel Khodorkovsky’s opinion, two camps exist in the Kremlin – the “siloviki” headed by Sergey Ivanov and by Igor Sechin, who presumably played a key role in the “YUKOS affair,” and the “liberals,” who have grouped themselves around Dmitry Medvedev, Igor Shuvalov and Arkady Dvorkovich. And if the “siloviki” are totally focused on the “old economic model,” based on the extraction and export of oil and useful minerals, then the business interests of the “liberals” are connected with an innovative model of the economy, access to international markets, the attraction of Western investments and the establishment of law. Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s son considers that the camp of the “liberals” is “objectively” interested in his father’s release.

Khodorkovsky has “outgrown the oligarch image”

During the discussion that ensued after Pavel Khodorkovsky’s appearance, New York University law professor Stephen Holmes called the privatization conducted under Boris Yeltsin “dubious from the moral point of view” and noted that at first Vladimir Putin was assigned the role of protector of its results and of Russian oligarchic capitalism. Contrary to the opinion widespread in the West, Professor Holmes considers that “there was not all that much democracy under Yeltsin,” while the “free press” was in actuality not so much free as it was a tool in the struggle between various oligarchic clans. In so doing, he noted, “in its majority, the elite that was not subordinate to anybody remained intact” under Putin.

Pavel Khodorkovsky admitted that “what we had in the 1990s was not democracy, but it was a good starting point on the path to it”. “What we’ve got today is not authoritarianism, but it’s a good starting point on the path to it,” he added.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s son likewise admitted that many Russians continue to despise “the oligarchs”. But in so doing, even despite the fact that the protest movement in Russia in recent months has veered to the left, Pavel Khodorkovsky connects the possibility of his father’s release specifically with the growth of this movement.

“I consider that my father has already both morally and practically outgrown that oligarch image that he had at the moment of his arrest in 2003,” he said. “The survey results show that the majority of the population in Russia already does not regard him as an oligarch who was rightly locked up because he had robbed the Russian state. More than 63% believe that he was convicted unlawfully and he needs to be released promptly without any request for pardon… Only about 14-15% believe he got the term he deserved, and everything is all right with our justice system”.

In the words of Pavel Khodorkovsky, “Putin is right in a certain measure” when he says that he does not know with whom of the representatives of the opposition he could sit down at a negotiating table. “Not one of the figures involved in political life today represents the opposition part of the population a hundred percent,” he admitted. “On the other hand, it is impossible to count on a leader appearing in a country in which a prohibition on political activity was in effect for 12 years”.

Pavel Khodorkovsky pins certain hopes on the elections to the opposition’s Coordination Council, that the Institute of Modern Russia is taking part. “I am not sure that this is going to be a hundred percent positive experience,” he said, “but I am sure that this experience is imperative for the formation of a system of fair alternative elections”.