Federico Fubini 

According to the Russian entrepreneur living in exile in London, the Kremlin leader has used the war to cover up his failures.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man, spent ten years in prison in Siberia for challenging Vladimir Putin. Today he lives in London and is one of the Kremlin’s most feared opponents.

Do you think Putin is aiming for an agreement on Ukraine?

‘I believe he has good reasons to negotiate seriously. Economic and recruitment problems are mounting in Russia. In addition, the occupied territories in Ukraine are proving to be another problem and a huge cost in the long run.’

How much will it take to rebuild them?

‘At least two or three hundred billion dollars. If other territories are added, even more. Then there is the issue of the population: 3.5 million people remain in occupied Ukraine and another 2.5 million have moved to Russia. Many of them are elderly or disabled, people who do not work and need assistance. That is six million inhabitants who have been unaccustomed to living under an authoritarian regime for a quarter of a century.’

Could there be acts of resistance?

‘I don’t think an underground partisan struggle could develop. But these are people who are used to fighting for their economic rights. It is a mining area comparable in Russia to Kemerovo, which is over three thousand kilometres from Moscow. Donbass, on the other hand, is eight hundred kilometres away and the roads are good. In the 1990s, Russian miners marched on the capital and protested, banging their helmets against the railings of the White House (the seat of government after 1993, ed.). Russians have now lost the habit of doing such things, but Ukrainians have not. Putin has brought upon himself a problem five times bigger than Chechnya.’

How important is Putin’s relationship with Donald Trump?

‘Putin understands that Trump is the best American president he could hope for; things will never be better than this. This is the moment when he can hold on to everything he has achieved and regain almost total international recognition. Before Trump, this was impossible, and it will remain so afterwards.’

Doesn’t Trump’s tolerance risk making Putin even more aggressive?

‘Trump likes Putin because he is a strong man; he would like to be like him if he could. But Putin is also a careful, cautious man. He is afraid of accidentally crossing some red line set by the American leader. I am trying to explain to Trump’s team that you cannot talk to Putin with the spirit of the good cop. Putin has a criminal mind, you have to show him that you are stronger than him. Instead, the idea is spreading in Russia that America no longer has any weapons or that it wants to preserve them for a possible war with China. If Trump and his team give Putin the impression that they are unable to fight against Russia, the consequences could be serious. But for now, Putin remains cautious.’

Does the Russian population continue to accept the war?

’15-20% of the population is against the war; 50% is indifferent but fears a possible defeat for Russia. Only 30% of the population is truly in favour. These are mostly elderly people, who do not have to fight. They are Putin’s voters and, although he is a dictator, he takes good care of them. But the war is becoming visible on the streets thanks to some high-impact Ukrainian counterattacks. In fact, airports in the European part of Russia are closed and drone attacks on refineries are causing petrol shortages. In addition, the number of volunteers to go and fight has plummeted in the last couple of months.’

The army as a remedy?

‘With conscripts who are effectively forced to sign up for the front, pretending it is their choice. It is a deception that can have serious consequences for the government. In essence, Putin can continue the war for a while, but the situation is becoming increasingly difficult for him.’

You paint a picture in which Putin has achieved little in three and a half years of death and destruction. Does the Russian elite still support him?

‘Putin has generally lost the war, even if he would disagree. It doesn’t really look like he has. He lost the war for Russia, not for himself: for himself, he gained another five or six years in power. He used the war to mask his social and economic failures. He didn’t change the government in Kyiv, he only has destroyed territories in his hands. In the end, this will become clear to the Russian elite as well.’

The interview was conducted by Federico Fubini, and it was originally published in the Corriere Della Sera.