Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who lives in exile and is accused of plotting a coup, says paranoia is growing in Moscow about the transfer of power

Having spent ten years in a Siberian jail on charges widely seen as politically motivated, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the businessman-turned-opposition leader is no stranger to Vladimir Putin using Russia’s malleable courts to silence him.

Now living in Britain, he was nevertheless surprised to find himself this week on a list of those accused of plotting a coup.

The FSB, Russia’s domestic intelligence service, announced that it suspected the former oil magnate, once the country’s richest man, of working to violently overthrow the government by supporting Ukrainian paramilitary units and recruiting people in Russia.

Khodorkovsky, 62, described the allegations as “lies”, but said that they were an indication of Putin’s increasing concern about the question of who will succeed him, and about the consolidation of a democratic opposition grouping that could one day vie for power in the aftermath of his demise.

“I don’t have any particular insider knowledge, but [these charges suggest] that they are clearly worried about the transfer of power that will follow Putin exiting the stage,” he told The Times.

“Putin looks to be quite healthy. But for the past 80 years of Russian history, all the dictators left the stage between the ages of 70 and 80. Putin is 73 so that is potentially why he is starting to think about this.”

The Russian leader has given no indication as to who his chosen successor might be, although he claimed in an interview on state TV this year that it was a question he thought about “always”.

He added: “Ultimately, the choice is for the people, for the Russian people. I think that there should be a person, or rather several people, so that the people have a choice.”

Under the constitution, were Putin to suddenly die or become incapacitated Mikhail Mishustin, the prime minister, would become interim leader. Most analysts believe that a period of political destabilisation would quickly follow, during which various contenders would jockey for supremacy, as was the case after the death of Stalin in 1953.

This, Khodorkovsky believes, is the only chance that pro-democracy advocates will have to influence the political landscape in their favour. “A lot of people from Putin’s entourage will be looking for allies during this period, so it will open up a window of opportunity,” he said. “But if we miss this opportunity, there will be another period of regime consolidation, which will just become another circle in the spiral.

“What Europe should take some optimism from is that within Putin’s entourage there’s no one except from him that has a vested interest in continuing with the war. [There are those who] do support the war, but it’s mostly mimicking Putin’s desires. Even Mr Prigozhin — who once declared a bounty on my head — even he didn’t want to continue with the war.” Yevgeny Prigozhin headed the Wagner mercenary group and died in a plane crash in 2023 after leading an aborted rebellion.

Khodorkovsky was one of 22 exiled politicians, businessmen, artists and activists to be charged by the FSB on Tuesday. Others included Garry Kasparov, the chess grandmaster, Mikhail Kasyanov, Putin’s first prime minister, and Vladimir Kara-Murza, a British-Russian dissident who was released from a Russian prison last year as part of a prisoner exchange.

All are members of a group called the Russian Antiwar Committee, which Khodorkovsky founded shortly after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as a means of bringing together opponents to Putin’s regime.

Announcing the opening of its criminal case against the 22, the FSB cited the group’s involvement with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (Pace), a human rights forum made up of politicians from 46 countries. Russia left Pace after its invasion of Ukraine.

Two weeks ago Pace announced that it was creating a “platform for dialogue with Russian democratic forces in exile”. In a statement the FSB said that Khodorkovsky had portrayed this platform as a “constituent assembly for a transitional period” and an alternative to Russia’s state institutions.

Khodorkovsky believes that the Pace initiative touched a nerve with Putin because the collaboration with an international institution provided the opposition a point of legitimacy around which to coalesce.

“Until very recently, the opposition to Putin’s regime has been quite fragmented, which the regime liked a lot,” he said. “But at the beginning of the war, we have created bodies that have consolidated to a great extent the Russian opposition to Putin’s regime.

“And now we are creating a platform where this consolidated part of the Russian opposition will be represented. And moreover, it receives a certain international legitimacy, even the smallest one.

“This is not going to play a huge role while Putin’s regime is stable. But of course, as soon as the power transition starts — and it is going to start at some stage — this will present a certain danger because it’s going to be an alternative grouping.”

During this transition period, he said that the West could play a role in influencing who ultimately succeeds in taking power, an influence that he put at about 15 per cent. Another 15 per cent would be held by pro-Europe politicians within Russia. “The real political art will be to leverage this 30 per cent in order to have a significant influence on where the transition ends up,” he said.

Who could replace Putin?

The question of who could replace Vladimir Putin, when and how has been a topic of discussion for at least a decade (Tom Parfitt writes).

What is most likely is a figure from Putin’s circle will be publicly apointed as his successor and then receives huge state backing in a manipulated election. Some kind of palace coup is much less likely.

One name that has featured prominently is Alexei Dyumin, 53, a former bodyguard to the president who became a deputy defence minister and was promoted by Putin last year to secretary of the state council, an advisory body to the president. Crucially, he is one of the inner circle who has played ice hockey with Putin, indicating a strong personal link. Other strong candidates are Mikhail Mishustin, 59, the prime minister, a technocrat who would formally take the reins if Putin resigned or died, and Sergei Sobyanin, 67, the mayor of Moscow.

If Putin goes voluntarily, he could choose to ensure continuity and protection by handing over to one of the ultra-loyal “Kremlin children”, offspring of his closest allies. Two examples are Boris Kovalchuk, 47, head of the accounts chamber and son of Yury Kovalchuk, 74 — the banker known by western officials as “Putin’s wallet” — and Dmitry Patrushev, 48, who became a deputy prime minister last year and is the son of the long-serving aide and security chief, Nikolai Patrushev, 74.

The interview was conducted by Tom Ball, and it was originally published in The Times