Russia is set to hold State Duma elections on Sunday. According to pollsters, of the 14 parties on the ballot paper, only four at best stand a chance of passing the threshold: United Russia and the three “systemic” (Kremlin-loyal) opposition parties, i.e. the same quartet as at present.

Although the individual faces inside the State Duma will be updated, and the reintroduction of single-member districts could allow some truly oppositional candidates to sneak in, the basic makeup of the future Duma is plain to see. Internally, it will be another weak parliament, blindly rubberstamping the regime’s draft laws.

What can the international community expect from Russia’s parliamentary parties and the State Duma in general? The eve of the election is a good time to scour the TV debates and election manifestos for foreign policy priorities.

United Russia (going into the election, the Kremlin-friendly Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) polls United Russia (UR) support at 41%; the independent Levada Center puts the figure at 31%)

The “party of power” has long confused its own interests for those of Russia, so there is no great difference between what Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says and what UR’s foreign policy doctrine states. Pride of place goes to Vladimir Putin’s emollient words: “We are united by a common desire to build a dynamic, thriving, prosperous country that is respected worldwide and open to equal and constructive dialogue.”

“Not many countries are able to conduct a truly sovereign foreign policy without glancing over the shoulder.”

Moving from the general to the particular, United Russia starts to clench its fists: “Not many countries are able to conduct a truly sovereign foreign policy without glancing over the shoulder. Russia can and does. And we have repeatedly proven it – by returning Crimea, by fighting international terrorism in the Middle East.”

As for repairing the broken partnership with the European Union, United Russia has adopted the formula “Less politics, more economics,” but the ruling party is also demanding the immediate and unconditional lifting of “the inhumane and wholly unlawful sanctions imposed unilaterally by the EU against the inhabitants of Crimea.”

However, in televised debates, United Russia’s diplomatic mask often slips. For instance, the odious MP Irina Yarovaya’s fire and brimstone on Channel One: “European politicians cannot take a single decision by themselves,” and, sticking it to the West as a whole: “The sanctions, the indecent behaviour, the hounding of our Paralympians and athletes, the ultimatums imposed on us in respect of Crimea, and the exhortations for us to abandon Donbas are all elements of international corruption and anti-Russia aggression.”

The fact that Western sympathisers of the Kremlin regime need to be fed increasing amounts of Russian taxpayers’ money was not, it seems, a topic of the debates, but UR’s election manifesto does not tiptoe around the issue: “It is essential to overhaul Russia’s foreign aid policy to provide targeted support for people and NGOs able and willing to promote Russia’s interests.”

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s party is polling around 10-11%).

The LDPR and its rabble-rousing leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky have never been ones for diplomatic finesse. For them, it’s confrontation or bust.

“Our foreign policy should be based solely on force”

“Our foreign policy should be based solely on force,” spouts Zhirinovsky in TV debates. “America hates us because we are its only rival. Europe doesn’t like us because it’s lost every war against us … They want us to go back to being little Muscovy so they can take Siberia and the Volga region. The new downsized ‘Moscow Republic’ will then be prodded into NATO and the EU.” The LDPR leader could hardly fail to mention Ukraine or suggest his own solution: “Yanukovych, the legitimate president, should be given Russian troops to take back Kiev.”

Don’t think that the “Russian Trump” utters such statements merely in the emotional fervour of live TV. The LDPR, which is aiming to become the second largest faction in the State Duma, makes the very same pronouncements in its party literature.

On global threats: “Internationally, Russia is once again the target of a no-holds-barred attack … Russia’s nuclear arsenal is the only factor preventing the United States and its allies from carving up the world.”

On Ukraine: “All the south-eastern regions of Ukraine should be invited to join Russia and then do so after a referendum.”

On how to redraw the political map of the world: “Russian foreign policy should be focused on ‘integrating the former Soviet republics into a single unitary state on the model of the Russian Empire.”

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (polls indicate 9% of the electorate will plump for the Communists)

“We are in a besieged fortress” is a staple of every pre-election speech by Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov. He continues: “Russophobia and chauvinism are oozing from all international organizations, which are intent on imposing sanctions on us.”

Foreign investors need to know that the CPRF’s election programme highlights global nationalisation. The Communists want the oil & gas industry, key banks, power stations, railways, communications and the military-industrial complex to revert to state ownership. “We are ready to resolve the issue of Russia’s withdrawal from the WTO,” state the party’s ideologues; and to protect Russia from “the dictatorship of the dollar” they propose to isolate the country’s Central Bank from the influence of the US Federal Reserve.

“If you don’t listen to us Communists, NATO’s ring of military bases around Russia will strengthen”

Since Putin’s foreign policy chimes nicely with the Communist vote, the party has not bothered to come up with its own. The prevailing attitude is contentment with the Kremlin and cautious hope that the CPRF’s position will be heeded. If it is not, the rhetoric is ready: “If you don’t listen to us Communists, NATO’s ring of military bases around Russia will strengthen and Russian citizens will face even more harassment.”

A Just Russia (Sergei Mironov’s party is poised on the entry threshold; some pollsters think it will break the 5 percent barrier, others are not so sure)

AJR’s election manifesto is a veritable who’s who of Russia’s enemies: “The United States has openly named its main military and political opponent as Russia. NATO’s military infrastructure is approaching Russia’s borders.”

“The deliberate sanctions policy of some Western countries is intended to undermine Russia’s credibility”

“The deliberate sanctions policy of some Western countries is intended to undermine Russia’s credibility and foster extremist organisations inside our country.”

AJR grabbed the pre-election headlines on 13 September when party leader Sergei Mironov met with Donbas militiamen in Moscow and actively backed their war: “We can see the emergence of a new hybrid – Ukrainian fascism. Only the bayonets of the ‘Novorossiya’ home guard can stop its advance.”

The party’s resurrection of this high-profile, half-forgotten topic is understandable. For a start, the billions invested in state propaganda at the time should not be allowed to simply fritter way. Second, the sense that the Kremlin’s dabbling in Donbas ended in betrayal can be exploited. Mironov knew what to say to the militiamen at this uneasy (for him) pre-election time: “We see what’s happening in Ukraine, which thanks to its leaders takes order from the ‘Washington Regional Committee.’ The nation is under the political thumb of the United States, which is trying to impose its will on the citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. But you, true patriots, are hampering their efforts.”

Mironov promised to introduce a draft law to the State Duma on the status of the Novorossiya militia as early as this autumn. “With official status secured, it will be possible to address issues such as citizenship and possible benefits,” said the AJR leader, not skimping on promises, despite his party’s uncertain future.

And this is what the “new” State Duma will look like – same old, same old.