Is the Russian withdrawal from Syria, success or defeat? Who can say …

Open Russia asked a number of Russian foreign policy experts how they viewed the pullback from Syria.

Aleksey Malashenko, orientalist, Moscow Carnegie Center

There are two ways of explaining this situation:

Russia wanted total victory, but this hasn’t happened so there was no longer any point carrying on the operation in its current form. It either had to be expanded, which would have resulted in complete collapse – and there had been more than one statement to the effect that the operation would not be expanded – or Russia had to bow out.

It’s quite possible there was some kind of previous agreement with the Americans

It’s quite possible there was some kind of previous agreement with the Americans: Russia to withdraw its aircraft in return for a softer position on Bashar al-Assad i.e. he remains in place during the negotiations, and what happens after that is unclear. If the talks turn out in such a way that Assad and his supporters can remain in power, then the compromise could be said to work in Russia’s favour; and we would consider that the Russian Syria policy had succeeded, including the military operation. But, again, we should not forget that only the main body of troops is being withdrawn, and a part of the contingent will remain in Syria. Because if the talks break down, and Assad’s affairs once more take a turn for the worse, what is to prevent the troops from returning on the pretext of dealing with militants and terrorists?

No final conclusion on the events and their outcomes will be possible until some time has elapsed, when we see clearly how the talks are panning out.

I don’t think the military operation has exhausted its possibilities: that’s not Putin’s style, because it would reveal his weakness, and he will never agree to that. He’s more likely to take more risks if there is any chance of success, than acknowledge a de facto defeat. So I think that the basis for his decision was an agreement with the Americans, which was very neatly executed because there were no information leaks, and officially it was very unexpected for everyone.

Kharun Sidorov, orientalist, leader of the National Organisation of Russian Muslims

There is no doubt that Putin yielded to pressure: the question is why and what for. The most obvious explanation is that he encountered resistance he could not overcome or that to have continued would have involved unjustified risks. The resistance would not only be from the rebels, air attacks on whom could only have been minimally successful, but from Turkey, threatening to enter the military conflict in the event of continued attacks on Aleppo, and the massed air attacks, and which had started its own hybrid war by sending in Turkish artillery, and opening Turkish “military tradeposts.”

There is no doubt that Putin yielded to pressure

So the continuation of the more or less effective Russian actions was leading implacably towards full-out war with Turkey.

Going to war with Turkey was not an option because it was becoming obvious that the rebels were starting to acquire new tricks, including shoulder-held surface-to-air missiles (as the story of the downed MIG-21 showed), and such a war would become a new Afghanistan, without the required economic resources, and risking the stability of the Russian regime.

Another theory, which cannot be ruled out, is that a decision was taken by the US to use Putin to trap Erdogan, taking account of the attacks made on him in Washington last week. Did these attacks signal the beginning of a new Washington game against Erdogan, which Putin decided to join? Or were they an emotional reaction to Erdogan’s success in pursuing his own game, resulting in the withdrawal of Russian and Iranian troops, and an effective agreement to the division of Syria? Only the key actors’ future actions will make this clear.

One way or another, whichever theory one plumps for, it is clear that Putin was acting under external pressure, and that the myth of a Russian return to the Middle East as a world power has been exploded. Putin’s actions in Syria – as with all his foreign and domestic policies – have caused enormous damage to Russia.

Vladimir Bruter, political scientist, the International Institute of Political and Humanitarian Research

I think there was no agreement between Russia and the US about troop withdrawals from Syria. White House Press Adviser Josh Earnest did not answer these questions at the daily press briefing on 14 March because he clearly did not have enough information. Had there been a previous agreement, his behaviour would have been different.

When we talk of political advantage for Russia, we have to realise that politics has no end; it is a continuum, rather than rounding off at a definite moment in time. Putin hopes that this will push the sides into negotiations.

When we talk of political advantage for Russia, we have to realise that politics has no end

It is clear that a) Russia considers nothing is threatening its military presence in Syria; b) talks will anyway have to take place, which will result in someone limiting Assad’s power, and fairly soon. As for the battle with ISIL and the retaking of Raqqa – Russia is obviously handing this to the US.

The question of any advantage for Russia is very complex. There is always a distance between wishes and achievements; this distance will be spread over time, so it is essential to wait and see how it all turns out.

Sanctions cannot currently be lifted because there are no grounds for so doing. To my mind, the lifting of sanctions and the withdrawal of troops from Syria are not directly connected. Something seriously weighty has to happen for the US to initiate the lifting of sanctions. It will, after all, very seriously impinge on the presidential campaign – Clinton’s most of all, because she will effectively take on that responsibility, and she would not want to do this. So I think that if there is any discussion on this subject, it could result in a fairly serious crisis within the EU: Germany, Great Britain and many of the Eastern European countries, especially the Baltics, will be against lifting the sanctions against Russia. So there is no chance of this at the moment. Let’s see what happens in six months’ time.

“This article was first published in Russian by Open Russia”