‘The West is always trying to find a good tsar for Russia’
I spoke to Tagesspiegel about what can be done to bring about a new, democratic Russia. The West must stop trying to find a “good tsar” for the country — an extremely centralised Russian government will always be aggressive.
Here’s the only alternative:
To prevent this from happening again, the international community should support the opposition’s efforts to promote decentralisation and democratic reforms while maintaining targeted sanctions against those who perpetuate hostile actions. Whatever Putin’s propaganda might want us to believe, about 20 per cent of Russian citizens express a sympathetic attitude to Western democracy, even when asked by state-run polling companies. This suggests that the true extent of democratic support is higher than that, and if not for the fear of repression – that is, if the political situation in Russia were different – then more people would be vocal in their support. Meanwhile, Putin’s approval ratings are currently falling as a result of his complete and utter failure to respond to the Ukrainian military operation in the Kursk region. This is in spite of the fact that the regime has had some success in manipulating perception of it. Because of the narrative that has been employed by propaganda, people don’t think of Kursk as an attack by an enemy military, but as a natural disaster. But even having absolved himself of blame for the incursion, Putin’s failure to handle it has left people unsatisfied. The regime has also shown that it is vulnerable to internal conflict. Last year’s mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries may not have been the popular uprising we hope for, but it did show that the Kremlin elites may not be fully in lockstep with one another.
In a dictatorial regime as strong as Putin’s, a revolution can only be successful if there is a split among its elites. While no element of the current regime would be preferable to any other, conflict between them is good for us, as it weakens the structure as a whole.
Other key points:
It’s important to engage in dialogue with the Russian people and stress the shared benefits of cooperation and the drawbacks of isolationism.
On recent prisoner exchange: I supported the swap that freed Vladimir Kara-Murza, Andrey Pivovarov, Ilya Yashin, and others, despite the risks of releasing assassin Vadim Krassikov. Saving innocent lives from brutal prison camps was the priority.
On travel to Russia: Westerners should carefully consider the risks of visiting Russia, as they could become targets or political leverage for the Putin regime.
