Experts comment on the opposition politician’s early announcement to run for the Russian presidency

Evgeny Shiryaev, Yulia Mineeva

Alexei Navalny has announced his intention to take part in the 2018 presidential elections. Although campaign trails usually begin a year before the election, Navalny’s team has already set up a campaign HQ, launched a website under the banner “Navalny-2018” and started fund-raising and looking for volunteers. In a video message to his supporters, Navalny himself talked about the long thought process behind his decision. But any doubts have now disappeared.

“I didn’t even contemplate the difficulties of campaigning against the Kremlin in today’s Russia. My thoughts were about the benefits for the country, for society, for the state and for the people, including those who don’t share my ideas. It was about whether my candidacy would help make Russia a better place. In the end, I decided to throw my hat into the ring and run for office,” said Navalny.

As we speak, Navalny is only a putative presidential candidate, but a defendant in a new criminal case. He has described the reopening of the Kirovles case at the Leninsky district court of Kirov as an attempt to bar him from running.

Recall that in November this year the Supreme Court, in compliance with the ECHR, overturned the district court’s initial ruling in respect of Navalny and Pyotr Ofitserov and ordered a review of the case materials. Lawyers for the accused claim it is a carbon copy of the first case, and are sure that the result will once more be a guilty verdict.

But so far they are just predictions.

As for the presidential election, Navalny plans to run as an independent. That means he will need to collect 300,000 signatures in no fewer than 40 regions of Russia in order to register.

The Kremlin’s reaction to the news was dry. Asked for its opinion, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov replied laconically: “There is none.”

Novaya Gazeta quizzed political analysts about Navalny’s electoral chances, his potential rivals and allies, and the factors that could thwart his candidacy for president of Russia.

What will happen next in the Kirovles case?

Dmitry Oreshkin: Navalny is an astute person and has no doubt weighed up his statement. I think the move is more likely to strengthen than weaken his position. If they nobble a presidential hopeful, the reaction will be different, especially internationally. It would mean the court has a potential presidential candidate on its hands.

Yekaterina Shulman: Navalny’s statement puts the court—and those able to influence the court— in a tight spot: either they let him run or they don’t. It’s proactive on Navalny’s part. He knows he has fewer resources than his opponents, so he’s forcing them to respond to his actions, not the other way round. The verdict will swing the agenda of the forthcoming election campaign towards Navalny and out of the hands of the new political planners inside the Presidential Administration.

Gleb Pavlovsky: Navalny’s statement is an independent political move, and one that might not get as far as an actual election campaign. But it’s important to consider that he now has a head start in the political period that starts this year and will last until the presidential election. He will lead the transitional period and set the agenda. He has beaten everyone else, including Putin, to the starting line. Navalny seems to be setting the pace and the direction. Politically, that’s a leading position.

It also makes the court case against him a serious matter. I think it rules out the possibility of a random verdict. He is now most definitely on Putin’s personal radar. I think he probably was before, but now it really is only for Putin to decide what to do with him. It consolidates Navalny’s position. In Russia there are a thousand ways to stop Navalny. He could be assaulted or jailed… But that would be an attack on all the presidential candidates—that’s the novelty of the political moment.

What are Navalny’s overall chances in the presidential election?

Dmitry Oreshkin: He’s active and likes to dictate the rules of the game.  He has challenged the Presidential Administration to make a decision. Do they let him run (if not, at what stage)? Do they jail him? Predictions are pointless. It depends on what’s going on inside the minds of the judges. Maybe they’ll do what they did in the 2013 mayoral elections in Moscow, when they actually helped him to take part. He did all right, but the right man won, of course.

A national election will be far harder for Navalny, and everyone knows it. People don’t really know him in the regions. He’s not on TV and hence out of mind. Even those who go online aren’t really into politics or Navalny. I think he’ll struggle to get 10% even if they play fair.

On the other hand, he’s a wildly talented politician when it comes to communicating with the electorate. He can do things that no one else in his position could. The Kremlin strategists have to make a decision, but I don’t expect a knee-jerk reaction. Outwardly there’ll be little sign of activity, but inside they’ll already be considering their options.

Navalny requires four resources: the first—administrative—will be off limits to someone in his situation, as will the second—monetary, because no covert financing will be available to him, while overt backers will be few and far between for fear of invoking the Kremlin’s wrath. The third—organizational—is underdeveloped because he has no regional network to speak of, while the last resource—the media—is highly unlikely to give him air time, which means that he will have to limit himself to an online presence.

In Moscow the authorities might permit him to hold a few rallies a day, but in the regions there will be obstacles: he might be obstructed from meeting voters, or his campaign team will suffer power cuts, things of that nature. Russia’s 85 constituent entities will mean lots of campaign miles, in most cases for little reward.

So it will be tough. That’s why the Kremlin’s response is hard to predict.  They might just think, why not let the guy run around if he wants to? Let him get his small percentage, then everything will be wrapped up.

Yekaterina Shulman: Navalny skipped the most recent parliamentary elections, so the loser tag is not associated with him. In terms of political tactics it was a very smart move. The Presidential Administration is known to be discussing ways to attract people to the polls to give them legitimacy. One of them is to introduce real competition with strong candidates, not the straw ones of the past two decades. Only two scenarios are now possible: with or without Navalny.

Gleb Pavlovsky: Navalny is currently the most powerful political figure in the country. Apart from him, the stage is empty. He has laid down a marker as if to say: “We are now entering the new post-Putin era.” Navalny has taken up a position that others will be forced to adopt themselves. One that addresses the real problems faced by the country, because Putin really will be on the way out in one form or another. So clarity is needed on what will be done after his departure.

Navalny has acquired a kind of temporary equivalence to Putin in the sense that he is proposing a strategic programme for the future. But eventually he’ll come unstuck and drop down to the level of Yavlinsky, who was also once a major figure.

Any declaration of intent to challenge Putin in 2018 is a statement of opposition, even if it were to come from Medvedev. Navalny’s advantage is that he missed the boat that sank during last elections, which means that he shares no responsibility for the opposition’s failure. That is now turning into an asset for him.

Could Navalny be the only opposition candidate?

Dmitry Oreshkin: That’s certainly an issue for Grigory Yavlinsky, because Navalny at the moment is polling three times higher. Navalny is new, Yavlinsky is old. I don’t mean age, mind, but the fact that voters cannot separate Yavlinsky from the 1990s. Whether he did good or bad, acted rightly or wrongly, is irrelevant. He’s just yesterday’s man. Navalny may be saying much the same thing, but he’s saying it more forcefully and more precisely. Like it or not, he’s up 3:1 on Yavlinsky. Yavlinsky and Kasyanov are too long in the tooth. Voters look at them and think: “You guys have been around for 25 years.” Navalny is new. But it remains to be seen how he will be able to play the novelty card.

Yekaterina Shulman: It is important to have the backing of people who have “resources”. The opposition does not have that in its present condition. Parnas lacks visibility, while Yabloko’s main resource is its regional divisions, but their inability to mobilise was evident during the last election.

Gleb Pavlovsky: Sure, the opposition could support him, but no one will pay much attention in 2018. The same today. It’s a struggle inside 1% of the population. The elections will take on more significance if Navalny is barred from standing. Even then, as long as he doesn’t make any mistakes, he’ll remain dominant inside the opposition whatever the authorities do.

This article was first published in Novaya Gazeta