Former oligarch says the Russian leader sees Hillary Clinton as a more predictable foe.

By David M. Herszenhorn

LONDON — A Donald Trump presidency might not work out so well for Vladimir Putin, according to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the ex-oligarch who spent more than a decade in prison as a political nemesis of the Russian president.

In an interview with POLITICO, Khodorkovsky said Putin, known for his machismo, would quickly find himself in a clash of egos with the American real estate and casino tycoon if he wins the presidency.

“I am not convinced that if Trump comes to power the situation would be better for Putin,” Khodorkovsky said Friday at the London offices of his pro-democracy and human rights organization, Open Russia.

Khodorkovsky also warned Putin and Russia to be prepared for relations with the U.S. to get even worse than they are now if Hillary Clinton is elected because she would not forgive him for Russia’s alleged meddling in the U.S. election.

“She knows well how to hammer Putin lower,” he said. “She is quite experienced and she won’t forgive.”

Khodorkovsky, who was pardoned unexpectedly by Putin in December 2013 just before the Sochi Winter Olympics, has special insight into the murky ways of Moscow. As the head of Yukos Oil, he was once Russia’s richest man, its most powerful oligarch, and was clearly viewed by the Kremlin as a threat before his arrest in 2003.

“We all know people like Trump,” said Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man. “And it’s not highly probable that Putin would play along to suit Trump’s ambitions.”

While Democrats in the U.S. have asserted that Trump would be a puppet of the Kremlin, Khodorkosky said that a clash was more likely for the opposite reason: because Putin would not defer to Washington, and to Trump.

Reaching for an illustration, he compared the potential relationship between Trump and Putin to the bond between Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya who has showed unwavering fealty to Putin in exchange for bountiful financing of his regional government and a large measure of political autonomy.

“We all know people like Trump,” Khodorkovsky said. “And it is not highly probable that Putin would play along to suit Trump’s ambitions like Kadyrov plays along to suit Putin’s ambitions.”

As for Clinton, Khodorkovsky said he believed that Putin has been planning all along for her eventual victory and therefore the Russian leader had moved preemptively in recent months to worsen relations between the old Cold War rivals. That, theoretically, would put him in a stronger negotiating position with the new administration.

“It is better for him to reach the bottom himself so for her the only possible step will be going up,” Khodorkovsky said.

At the same, he warned, “If Clinton wins now, what Putin considers to be the bottom won’t be the actual bottom. She knows well how to hammer Putin lower than that. She is quite experienced and she won’t forgive — and I am talking more about the U.S. establishment here — that she won’t forgive interference into the internal electoral process in the U.S.”

“I can’t forecast [Trump’s] actions. I hope someone in the U.S. can” — Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Khodorkovsky, who now lives in the U.K., said he viewed Clinton as a more predictable political actor than Trump — a view that seems to be shared among billionaires, ex-billionaires and non-billionaires alike.

As a result, he said it was difficult to guess what would happen when Putin inevitably refused to submit Russia to the wishes of a President Trump.

“Putin can’t do this,” Khodorkovsky said. “And it means that a conflict with Trump is unavoidable. What would come out of this conflict? It is hard to say. In case of Clinton, I can forecast her actions, in case of Trump I can’t forecast his actions. I hope someone in the U.S. can.”

This article first appeared in Politico