The Ukraine war will not end as long as Putin rules in the Kremlin. This is what the former oil magnate and camp prisoner Khodorkovsky says. But after Putin, things could get better.

Russian government opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky does not share the fear that an even more radical ruler in Russia could follow on Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. “I don’t expect anything worse to come after him,” the former oil magnate told reporters in Berlin. “Everything you can make worse will be done by Putin.” He will escalate if it serves his interests.

Khodorkovsky expressed skepticism that the war in Ukraine and the major conflict between Russia and Europe will end as long as Putin is in power. “Will Putin die in office? Most likely,” he said of the 74-year-old Kremlin chief. At best, it could be possible to freeze the war and achieve a limited de-escalation.

No democracy after Putin, but relief for Russians

A possible successor must first consolidate his power in Russia. The possibilities of an escalation towards Europe will have already exhausted Putin, said Khodorkovsky in the think tank Liberal Modernity. He expects that institutions such as the Russian Security Council, the parliament and the regions will regain more influence after Putin. This will not be a democratization in the Western sense, but it will be noticeably easier for the Russians.

Putin locked Khodorkovsky away for 10 years

Khodorkovsky (63) was one of the wealthiest men in Russia as head of the Yukos oil company. When he began to criticize Putin, he was arrested in 2003 and was released from prison only 10 years later. He is considered in exile to be an important voice of the overall very fragmented Russian opposition.

First published in German in FOCUS online