Russia is upgrading the fighting forces against Europe at a high pace, even though the war in Ukraine inflicts cruel casualties on the country. In addition, Vladimir Putin is working long-term to rally the Russian people behind him.

NRK has interviewed Russian sources who know Putin to ask:

What does he really want?

This is the case

• Three sources who know Vladimir Putin’s mindset respond to what he intends to do after the Ukraine war is once over.
• Putin may want to change the power relations in Europe, before NATO gets built up.
• He has worked long-term for the people to see NATO as an enemy.
• Defence chief Eirik Kristoffersen says Russia must not be underestimated.

Having a larger military power is not the same as wanting to use it.

The question Europe is asking is: What Vladimir Putin will do with this enormous military power?

“We actually know pretty well what Vladimir Putin really wants,” Russian opposition leader Mikhail Khodorkovsky told NRK.

“As soon as Vladimir Putin finishes the war in Ukraine, he’s going to build up the military along the Western border.”

For one year, NRK has worked with journalists in Denmark’s Radio to find Russian sources who know the Kremlin from the inside. Among other things, we have worked with the corruption hunters Dossier Center. They have sources both inside and outside Russia, among them people who have or have held key positions in Putin’s power apparatus. They use this contact to criticize the Russian regime.

The Dossier Centerwas founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky to expose corruption and abuse of power in Russia. The center is working to disclose and document cases in view of a future legal process against Vladimir Putin and other Russian authorities. They collect information and order summaries. They also use journalistic methods and publish their findings online. Dossier Center has several collaborations with European media houses.

Behind the Dossier Center stands Russian Mikhail Khodorkovsky. He himself has met President Putin several times and was part of Russian power elite over twenty years ago. But in 2005, he was imprisoned. The verdict was for economic default, but the Council of Europeand Amnesty believe it was politically motivated, a punishment for his criticism of corruption in Putin’s rule.

Khodorkovsky is in no doubt that Putin will complete the military build-up he has started along the border.

“President Putin is convinced that Europe is in the way of him being able to rule as he pleases. Europe is a threat to his power. But he also believes Europe could be forced into submissity,” Khodorkovsky said.

Today, he regularly meets European politicians to talk about the power, corruption and democratic future of Russian regime. In the early 2000s, he regularly met with Vladimir Putin, and they talked about the same topics.

Putin had just come to power. Khodorkovsky was Russia’s richest businessman.

The president was a KGB spy before becoming a politician, and both inside and outside Russia there was considerable tension about which way he would take the country. For a while, Putin spoke warmly about democracy and European cooperation.

Khodorkovsky now believes he was duped by the driven KGB agent.

“He appeared a modern person, who was very ready to take Russia in a democratic direction,” Khodorkovsky said, leaving it unsaid that it has not gone.

Khodorkovsky says one of the reasons Putin for builds-up along the border with the West is that Putin does not believe Europe manages to stand united under pressure.

Putin does not view Europe as an independent political subject. In his eyes, you are too weak to defend yourselves, and do not have the right to decide or have a meaning over what other countries do.

NRK tells him about our investigations of Russian military build-up along the border, and the speed they build with.

“Yes, I am absolutely convinced that as soon as Vladimir Putin finishes the war in Ukraine, he will build up the military along the Western border,” he replies.

Khodorkovsky says it was due to Putin’s desire for power. But also one more thing. He believes that the war machine Putin has set in motion is so enormous that it is difficult to turn off.

“First of all, there are many fighting soldiers in the war in Ukraine. They’re not going to be sent home, at least not all of them.

Putin himself reported this fall that there were more than 700 000 troops standing in the neighboring country. Khodorkovsky’s assessment is that at most, purely practical, it is possible to send home 150 000 of them. Then over half a million soldiers remain in the army. They will be transferred to the border with the West, he believes.

He also says powerful forces want the machinery to continue to go. He explains that powerful people in the war industry are used to good profits. “There will be protests from them if production and revenue are slowed”, he said.

The war in Ukraine is demanding an increasingly large share of Russia’s economy. According to was the defence spending of 7.33 percent of gross domestic product last year. Therefore, Khodorkovsky believes that President Putin cannot end military activity, because then he will lose important support. His conclusion is bleak. Putin both wants and must rust up.

“Therefore, the risk of conflict will increase in two to three years after the war in Ukraine is over,” Khodorkovsky said.

He is not gracious to those who believe the falling Russian economy will slow Putin.

“I know that in some European countries, and especially in Norway, one thinks that the Russian economy is weak and that it is going to collapse. Unfortunately, I don’t believe it. Russians can stand more than they stand in now.”

In May 2026, Vladimir Putin said that the war in Ukraine could be drawing to a close. That would, in turn, put pressure on other countries’ defense capabilities, says Khodorkovsky.

“It is Europe’s ability to defend itself that can prevent a war from breaking out. So far, that ability appears to be virtually nonexistent,” he says.

Khodorkovsky believes the conflict with the West will not stop—it will continue as long as Putin is alive.

The interview by NRK journalists was first published in the NRK